THE PRICE OF CONTROL: WHY THE UNITED STATES IS SHIFTING FROM SANCTIONS TO COERCIVE PRESSURE ON VENEZUELA

Abstract

U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela has undergone a significant transformation, shift- ing from a policy of sanctions and diplomatic pressure to the threat of direct military confrontation. The problem of sanctions ineffectiveness and alternative coercive instru- ments is examined through the case of U.S. policy toward the Maduro regime during the period from 2014 to 2025. The article aims to examine and analyze the factors under- lying U.S. strategic interest in Venezuela, to trace the evolution of U.S. instruments of influence from sanctions-based pressure (beginning in 2014) to coercive deterrence and direct military threat in 2025, and to assess the potential risks and implications for regional and global security. The research methods employed include content analysis of official U.S. documents (legislative acts and analytical reports), the case study method for examining U.S. policy toward Venezuela, and the historical method for tracing and analyzing key changes in U.S. policy from 2014 to 2025. The central research question concerns whether the shift in U.S. policy toward Venezuela is driven by the systemic interaction of a set of factors. The analysis integrates considerations of strategic energy security, potential internal threats to the United States, geopolitical rivalry with China and russia, and the risks of diminished U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere. The proposed integrated analytical approach to examining the evolution of foreign policy in strategically significant regions may be applied to other cases for the purpose of forecasting shifts toward military confrontation when diplomatic and sanctions-based instruments prove insufficiently effective. The results of the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela confirm the limited effectiveness of diplomatic efforts initiated in 2014. While the Maduro regime declared its readiness to support the legitimacy and democratization of the electoral process, reports from international organizations document violations. This disregard for U.S. demands contributed to the transition toward a strategy of military pressure as a logical consequence of prior measures that demonstrated limited effectiveness. A military escalation scenario may carry unpredictable and dangerous consequences for the United States, the Western Hemisphere, and the world at large. Direct military action by the United States against Caracas could produce significant domestic political repercussions and contribute to the polarization of public opinion within the United States. Regional instability may facilitate the expansion of Chinese and russian military presence and influence in the Western Hemisphere. Uncertainty regarding Venezuelan energy reserves could generate volatility in global markets for critical energy resources.