TRANSFORMATION OF THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL REGIME: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR UKRAINE

Abstract

This article explores the transformation of the Russian Federation’s political regime, which has emerged as a defining factor in the destabilization of the contemporary inter- national relations system. The relevance of this study is driven by the need to rethink the internal nature of Russian authoritarianism, which, through its evolution, has shifted from hybrid forms to overtly totalitarian practices – a transition that directly correlates with the increasing aggressiveness of its foreign policy. The study outlines the formative stages of the modern Russian political system and the specifics of autocratic consolidation. It examines the core components of the “Putin” model of power, aimed at neutralizing centrifugal tendencies within Russia and imple- menting aggressive integration projects targeting post-Soviet states. It is established that a key stage of this transformation was the dismantling of federalism and the forma- tion of a “loyalty vertical”, wherein regional elites lost their political agency. Particular attention is paid to the role of security agencies as the primary beneficiaries of the regime. The legitimacy crisis of 2011–2013 is identified as the point of no return, after which the Kremlin adopted external expansion as its sole viable tool for maintaining internal stability. The paper demonstrates that Russia’s transition to full-scale aggression served as an instrument for a radical shift in the domestic political agenda: moving from socio-eco- nomic development toward a paradigm of “national survival”. It is found that the pri- mary mechanisms of regime legitimation have become the cultivation of an “external enemy” image and an ideology of “geopolitical messianism”, which has effectively trans- formed authoritarianism into a totalitarian regime. The study argues that external expansion is a systemic condition for the survival of Russian elites. In a context of rigid monocentrism and the convergence of capital with the power vertical, war serves as the only means of preserving a monopoly on power. The protracted nature of the conflict is attributed to the absence of internal safeguards against aggression and the regime’s loss of legitimacy outside a state of war. At the same time, Ukraine’s strategic opportunity lies in exerting asymmetric influence on the internal cohesion of Russian elites and actively participating in the deconstruction of Russia’s geopolitical revisionism in the post-war period.